Xie's call came as some of the world's smallest developing countries protested against what they see as intransigence by some of the world's biggest economies. The main sticking points for developed countries – a lack of comparability between rich and poor country targets, a lack of guarantee that developing country targets will be measurable, reportable and verifiable to the standard required – were still not resolved, they said.
One participant said the Chinese proposals were nothing more than a restatement of previous positions and therefore unlikely to lead to progress. If China supports a process to significantly improve mitigation levels by 2020, and is prepared to either accept the United States being out of this game and or use this absence strategically, then it would be a breakthrough and change the political game substantially." If this is where China is, then substantially I would say this is not a breakthrough but an attempt to gloss over a disaster. The central question politically remains as to what China would do if the United States does not buy into further action, or whether they just want to leave the 2020 emission reductions as they are and not touch them. Strategically it would break with the hardline position in the G77 and isolate India if it is at the strong end of the spectrum. And if not legally binding now, when then?"Īnd a person closely observing the talks added that other countries would need to see more flesh put on China's proposals before making judgment: "It depends very much on the details and who buys into this. One long-time participant put the chances of a walkout by some developing countries at about one in five, but said China's active encouragement could make the difference.Īnother developed country official told the Guardian: "We of course would welcome tougher action from developing economies but the question here is: will this action have the same legal value as our action or will it be voluntary? Because if the latter, it might not be interesting. Rich countries are unwilling to agree to legally binding cuts in their own emissions while those from emerging economies, even big emitters such as China, remain voluntary - but some said it could at least encourage developing countries to stay at the table. Xie, who played a prominent role in Copenhagen talks in 2009, is a major figure in the negotiations, and presented his proposal as a way to break the current deadlock.ĭeveloped world diplomats and experts contacted by the Guardian were cautious about the impact of the plan. Many developing countries look to Beijing for leadership on this issue, so Xie's ideas are likely to be influential. These national plans would not necessarily have the same legal status as commitments under a new version of the Kyoto protocol – for instance, they could be tied to economic conditions, or be binding at a purely national level - but Xie believes that these plans should be enough to persuade rich countries of the earnestness of developing countries´intentions. He called on all emerging economies to bring forward plans that would demonstrate their willingness to curb the growth of their emissions. In the past, this approach has been seen by rich countries as simply continuing the stalemate that has afflicted the long-running talks, and several nations – including the US and Japan – have rejected a "Kyoto 2" because it would not require binding legal commitments from emerging economies to limit their emissions.īut Xie believes that China's proposal offers a new way forward, by stipulating that developing countries must also play their part, though within a different framework from the rich world. Its first commitment phase is due to expire next year. But Xie Zhenhua, vice chairman of the Chinese government's National Development and Reform Commission, also told the Guardian that the best chance of progress was for developed countries to draw up a "Kyoto 2", a second phase of the Kyoto protocol, the first agreement between nations to mandate country-by-country reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.